outrightArb
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
+700.00% profit
Live
AI Value Picks
Mathematically-backed recommendations with positive expected value — powered by prediction market analysis and Kelly criterion sizing.
Updated: Saturday, May 9, 2026
6
Total Picks
+41.9%
Avg EV
$300.00
Total Staked
$125.69
Expected Profit
64%
AI Accuracy · 32/50
Arbitrage Opportunities
8 risk-free arbs detected across 30 events
outrightArb
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
+154.78% profit
outrightArb
Netanyahu out by...?
+103.05% profit
Today's Picks
8 positive-EV opportunities identified
basketballUpcoming
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Los Angeles Lakers
+143.4% EV
Odds
7.80x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$390.00
Confidence
68.8%
Confidence Score68.8/100
football✓ HITFinal: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Shakhtar Donetsk
+114.2% EV
Odds
5.25x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$262.50
Confidence
59.2%
Confidence Score59.2/100
football✓ HITFinal: 4-0
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest
+68.6% EV
Recommended Bet
Aston Villa
Odds
1.74x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$87.00
Confidence
96%
Confidence Score96/100
football✓ HITFinal: 3-1
SC Freiburg vs SC Braga
+52.8% EV
Recommended Bet
SC Freiburg
Odds
1.74x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$87.00
Confidence
87%
Confidence Score87/100
football✗ MISSFinal: 0-1
Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano
+36.8% EV
Recommended Bet
Strasbourg
Odds
1.91x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$95.50
Confidence
71%
Confidence Score71/100
football✓ HITFinal: 2-4
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr
+34.5% EV
Recommended Bet
Al-Nassr
Odds
1.58x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$79.00
Confidence
85%
Confidence Score85/100
baseballUpcoming
KT Wiz Suwon vs Lotte Giants
+29.8% EV
Recommended Bet
KT Wiz Suwon
Odds
1.56x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$78.00
Confidence
83%
Confidence Score83/100
baseball✗ MISSFinal: 5-10
SSG Landers vs NC Dinos
+29.0% EV
Recommended Bet
SSG Landers
Odds
1.83x
Best: PredX
Stake
$50.00
Potential Payout
$91.50
Confidence
70%
Confidence Score70/100
Our Methodology
How we identify and size high-EV opportunities
How We Calculate EV
Expected Value is computed as:
EV = (AI Prob × Decimal Odds) − 1
Our AI assigns probabilities by aggregating prediction market signals, on-chain data, and historical performance, then compares them to the market-implied price to surface edge.
Stake Sizing
Stakes are sized using the Half-Kelly Criterion — the mathematically optimal formula for bankroll growth while limiting drawdown risk.
f = (bp − q) / b × 0.5
Half-Kelly halves the theoretically optimal bet fraction, reducing variance and protecting your bankroll during model uncertainty.
Confidence Score
A 0–100 score reflecting the model's certainty in its probability estimate. Higher is better.
- Data quality and completeness
- Prediction market liquidity
- Model agreement across indicators
AI-powered analysis
Polymarket data
Updated daily
Kelly Criterion sizing
Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. These picks are generated by an AI model and are provided for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial or gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. Prediction markets and sports betting carry inherent risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.