O
🏛️politicsEnds 6mo

Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

Yes0.5%
99.5%No
$59K
Total Vol
$231
24h Vol
$14K
Liquidity
-0.1%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$19900.00
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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FAQ

What is "Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 0.5% and No at 99.5%. This is based on $58,511.18 total volume.
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Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | 0.5% Odds — OctoTrend