O
šŸ›ļøpoliticsEnds 1mo

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?

Yes32.5%
67.5%No
$1K
Total Vol
$936
24h Vol
$8K
Liquidity
+18.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$207.69
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to ā€œYesā€ if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to ā€œNoā€. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this marketā€™s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", ā€œAssessed Russian Controlā€, ā€œAssessed Russian Advance In Ukraineā€, or ā€œAssessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hoursā€ will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

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FAQ

What is "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30?"?ā–¾
This market will resolve to ā€œYesā€ if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to ā€œNoā€. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this marketā€™s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", ā€œAssessed Russian Controlā€, ā€œAssessed Russian Advance In Ukraineā€, or ā€œAssessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hoursā€ will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
What is the current probability?ā–¾
The market currently prices Yes at 32.5% and No at 67.5%. This is based on $1,049.213 total volume.
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Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? | 32.5% Odds ā€” OctoTrend