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🏛️politicsEnds 3mo

Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?

Yes25.5%
74.5%No
$4K
Total Vol
$0
24h Vol
$1K
Liquidity
-2.0%
24h Change

About This Market

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

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Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?

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Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?

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FAQ

What is "Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?"?▾
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 25.5% and No at 74.5%. This is based on $4,226.118 total volume.
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