O
🏛️politicsEnds 5mo

Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

Yes78.5%
21.5%No
$4K
Total Vol
$975
24h Vol
$16K
Liquidity
+1.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$27.39
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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FAQ

What is "Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?"?▾
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 78.5% and No at 21.5%. This is based on $3,859.007 total volume.
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Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 78.5% Odds — OctoTrend