Question 1

What is "Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?"?

Accepted Answer

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Question 2

What is the current probability?

Accepted Answer

The market currently prices Yes at 0.1% and No at 99.9%. This is based on $5,747,638 total volume.

Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

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