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₿cryptoEnds 7mo

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Yes5.8%
94.2%No
$180K
Total Vol
$432
24h Vol
$6K
Liquidity
+0.1%
24h Change

About This Market

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

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FAQ

What is "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?"?▾
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 5.8% and No at 94.2%. This is based on $180,262.66 total volume.
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