🐙OctoTrend
🏛️politicsEnds 8mo

Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes0.3%
99.8%No
$138K
Total Vol
$15K
24h Vol
$9K
Liquidity
+0.2%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$39900.00
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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FAQ

What is "Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?"?▾
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 0.3% and No at 99.8%. This is based on $137,759.97 total volume.
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Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | 0.3% Odds — OctoTrend — Análisis de Mercados de Predicción con IA & Señales