🐙OctoTrend
🏛️politicsEnds 1d

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Yes
0.5%
No
99.5%
$16.3M
Total Vol
$496K
24h Vol
$377K
Liquidity
-0.2%
24h Change
Trade SignalS
BUY NO
Direction
45.2%
Edge
101%
ROI
25.0%
Kelly
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$0.00
If No wins
$0.00
Market Signals
6.5
Score
-0.08
Momentum
134x
Vol Ratio
Yes
Vol Spike
$86K
Whale
50%
Consistency

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 30, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Related Markets

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

3%+0.4%

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

3%+0.1%

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

0%-0.1%

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

0%-3.5%

Trump out as President by April 30?

0%

Correlated Markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

independent

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

independent

FAQ

What is "Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 30, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 0.5% and No at 99.5%. This is based on $16,316,185 total volume.
← Markets