Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?

About This Market

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related Markets

Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?

1%-0.2%

Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026?

7%-4.5%

Will Sébastien Lecornu announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

27%-24.5%

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

28%

Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

17%+0.5%

Correlated Markets

FAQ