Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Related Markets

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

8%-1.0%

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

40%-0.5%

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

45%+7.5%

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

38%-10.0%

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

84%+0.5%

Correlated Markets

FAQ