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Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes
17.0%
No
83.0%
$134K
Total Vol
$1K
24h Vol
$2K
Liquidity
+4.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$488.24
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

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FAQ

What is "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 17.0% and No at 83.0%. This is based on $134,477.47 total volume.
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