O
🏛️politicsEnds 7mo

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Yes17.5%
82.5%No
$71K
Total Vol
$1
24h Vol
$3K
Liquidity
-1.0%
24h Change

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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FAQ

What is "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 17.5% and No at 82.5%. This is based on $71,098.125 total volume.
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