🌤️weatherEnds 8mo
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Yes
28.0%
No
72.0%
$215K
Total Vol
$369
24h Vol
$2K
Liquidity
+0.5%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$257.14
If No wins
$-100.00
About This Market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
FAQ
What is "Natural Disaster in 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 28.0% and No at 72.0%. This is based on $215,200.6 total volume.