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Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?

Yes99.0%
1.0%No
$49K
Total Vol
$22K
24h Vol
$13K
Liquidity
+11.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$1.01
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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FAQ

What is "Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic grants the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos (including Mythos Preview) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Granting access to Claude Mythos refers to Anthropic allowing any department, agency, or subset of the United States federal government to use Claude Mythos for any purpose. An official announcement from either Anthropic or the United States federal government, that Anthropic has agreed to grant the United States federal government access to Claude Mythos, will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether access begins after the resolution date. Suggestions, negotiations, or other statements that do not constitute granting access will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Anthropic has agreed to grant access to Claude Mythos to the United States federal government will also suffice. “Claude Mythos” refers to a model named “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos Preview, Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos X) or a model confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model referenced in the March 26, 2026 leak. Models such as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not qualify unless explicitly confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. General public availability of a Claude Mythos model without a qualifying announcement or confirmation of access being granted will not alone suffice. The primary resolution sources will be official information from Anthropic and the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 99.0% and No at 1.0%. This is based on $49,255.89 total volume.
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