🐙OctoTrend
🏛️politicsEnds 2mo

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

Yes
2.4%
No
97.7%
$143K
Total Vol
$49K
24h Vol
$40K
Liquidity
-1.7%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$4155.32
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

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FAQ

What is "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 2.4% and No at 97.7%. This is based on $142,740.42 total volume.
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