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Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes
6.5%
No
93.5%
$2K
Total Vol
$21
24h Vol
$2K
Liquidity
—
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$1438.46
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

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FAQ

What is "Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 6.5% and No at 93.5%. This is based on $1,964.238 total volume.
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