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🏛️politicsEnds 1mo

Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?

Yes21.0%
79.0%No
$70
Total Vol
$48
24h Vol
$141
Liquidity
-20.5%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$376.19
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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FAQ

What is "Will another Canadian MP cross the floor by May 15, 2026?"?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?
The market currently prices Yes at 21.0% and No at 79.0%. This is based on $69.994 total volume.
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