🐙OctoTrend
🤖aiEnds 2mo

Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes
19.5%
No
80.5%
$138K
Total Vol
$12K
24h Vol
$8K
Liquidity
+1.0%
24h Change
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$412.82
If No wins
$-100.00

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Related Markets

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

28%-1.0%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

60%+5.1%

Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

0%

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

1%+0.1%

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

2%-0.7%

Correlated Markets

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?

independent

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

independent

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

same

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

independent

Trump out as President by June 30?

independent

FAQ

What is "Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 19.5% and No at 80.5%. This is based on $138,275.4 total volume.
← Markets