Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
About This Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Related Markets
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?