🐙OctoTrend
🏛️politicsEnds 9h

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?

Yes
0.1%
No
99.9%
$2.2M
Total Vol
$9K
24h Vol
$65K
Liquidity
-0.1%
24h Change
Trade SignalA
BUY NO
Direction
45.2%
Edge
101%
ROI
25.0%
Kelly
Profit Calculator ($100)
If Yes wins
$0.00
If No wins
$0.00
Market Signals
5.3
Score
+0.00
Momentum
54x
Vol Ratio
Yes
Vol Spike
$24K
Whale
40%
Consistency

About This Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Related Markets

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

3%+0.4%

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

3%+0.1%

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

0%-0.1%

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?

0%-3.5%

Trump out as President by April 30?

0%

Correlated Markets

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

independent

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

independent

Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

independent

FAQ

What is "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?"?▾
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
What is the current probability?▾
The market currently prices Yes at 0.1% and No at 99.9%. This is based on $2,211,090.2 total volume.
← Markets
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? — OctoTrend